I’ve been a licensed REALTOR for nearly 25 years so I’ve seen a few ups and downs in the housing market. The question is get asked most often is, “What is the market going to do this year?” Its a fair question but a difficult one to answer as I don’t believe I yet own the wondrous power of absolute prognostication but I will do my best to put some context to my answer.
Prior to the Great Recession the Oregon real estate market enjoyed an amazing ride from 2002 into 2007. The market turned for the worse by summer of 2007 and by the 3rd quarter of 2012 the free fall was complete. That was approximately 5 years of growth followed by 5 years of decline. Since the 3rd quarter of 2012 the Oregon market has grown by leaps and bounds back to what it once was (and then some). We just finished 2017 on a high as another 5 year cycle has been completed. What does that say for 2018 and beyond? As history tends to repeat itself, 2018 may be the transition year into either much slower growth or even a bit of a decline in home values. Most economists agree that by the time 2019 rolls around and the new tax laws take full effect, we may see a completely different market than the one we just witnessed.
But that’s not bad news. In fact, it actually is healthy for our market to stabilize like we have seen signs of it doing as of late. A more balanced market that is fair to both buyers and sellers is key to long term sustained growth. With inventory levels expected to rise in 2018, buyers should see more choices and you may not need to compete with multiple buyers for the same home.
The market is strong, employment is strong and Oregon remains one of the top in-migration states. As a result, we should see a relatively stable market for the time being.
Garett Chadney is a Principal Broker/Owner of The Broker Network, LLC a boutique-style real estate brokerage with offices in Oregon and SW Washington.